Predictions for 2011
Funny, I wrote this back in December but forgot to publish it!
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Playing the prediction game is fun, but impossible. One of my core beliefs is that the future is inherintely unpredictable. The best way to predict the future is always to guess that things will be the same as the last year. So lets try that:
Apple will launch a new version of the iPad and a new version of the iPhone. They will both be huge succeses and outsell any other single smartphone or tablet. Nokia will remain the market leader in terms of market share. Analysts will debate if market share is a valid measure of Nokia’s and Apple’s success.
Google will continue to be the #1 search engine. They will take a stab at launching a new social product to replace Google Buzz. It will be mildly successful.
Mobile operators will continue to debate if they should become smart bit-pipes or if they should launch their own app stores and API offerings. The only ones who will be profitable in this space will be WAC (who charges huge membership fees) and STL Partners (who runs the Telco 2.0 conferences).